НАУКА
The article presents the results of a research of the principles, methods and models for discovery of crises in the economy in the early stages. The increase in the intensity of interaction of economic agents and increase the speed of information exchange and transactions frequency create preconditions not only for accelerating growth but also for the overheating of the economy with subsequent state of crisis. The relevance and importance of the work justifies increasing frequency, as global economic crises and crises of assets, and in opportunities of a statistically sound forecasting of development of crisis processes in the securities market. The object of the study was the crisis situation of the individual assets, as well as methods of detecting the crisis at an early stage.
Decision-making regarding cooperation with a particular company requires a sufficiently in-depth analysis of the attractiveness and prospects of such cooperation. Standard methods of analysis, such as analysis of economic activity, investment attractiveness and efficiency of investment projects, undoubtedly remain the main ones in the organization of interaction, but due to the fact that most companies deviate from the normative values of activity and still remain attractive enough for cooperation, the analysis of the efficiency of intrafirms corporate processes is becoming increasingly popular. The huge variety of risk management methods, along with the inability to obtain reliable information about the methods used within the firm, force stakeholders to pay attention to indirect signals of effectiveness evaluation. In the course of the research, it was suggested that stakeholders have their own judgment about the effectiveness of intracorporate management processes that are different from common valuation techniques and conducted their own research. Based on the survey data conducted with representatives of the top management of various sectors of the economy, a list of relevant criteria for the effectiveness of intra-corporate risk management was obtained. The use of statistical methods of analysis and methods of scientific knowledge allowed to develop a mathematical methodology for evaluating these criteria, and empirical data of 88 Russian companies in the non-financial sector were used as a basis for calculating control points for application in practice. The theoretical significance is the identification of points of control of the effectiveness of risk management from the perspective of stakeholders; practical relevance reflects the toolkit for comparing the company with the best practices.
For the last several years, the Russian Federation has been artificially restraining the growth of tariffs for the services of natural monopolies. A simple decision, which is taken hastily a few years ago as a short-term anti-crisis measure, has every chance of becoming a "solution" for many years to come. The authors attempt to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of the tariff regulation and present the results obtained in the framework of the basic research program of the Higher School of Economics on the impact of tariffs in the energy sector on the main macroeconomic indicators, most often used as arguments in favor of tariff restraint. It is shown that tariffs, including the ones for electricity networks, should cover all efficient costs of regulated companies in full which enables reliable and safe power supply for sustainable and efficient development of industries and wellbeing of the population. The authors present for the first time the results of the estimations of the efficiency of the operational costs of electric networks in Russia obtained on the models developed by the Institute of Pricing and Regulation of Natural Monopolies. The models are based on the data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique, one of the most advanced and most common methods in contemporary tariff setting.
The article is devoted to the actual problem of assessing the effectiveness of consulting methods. Management consulting is a developing sphere of human activity. The technique of an estimation of efficiency of methods of organizational diagnostics is offered. The research was based on the problem of assessing the effectiveness of diagnostic methods in consulting using only economic indicators. According to the methodology, during the evaluation, the effectiveness of methods is is assessed in the light of costs and results, both should be similarly broken down into a number of elements. These elements were to be evaluated by experts. To confirm the validity of the results obtained, statistical indicators are used: variance of a random variable, standard deviation and coefficient of variation, which confirm (or disprove) the results of an expert poll.To approbate the methodology, a survey of experts elected among employees of consulting companies in Omsk was conducted. The survey data was analyzed. Based on the results of the analysis, the validity of the obtained survey results and the possibility of their practical application was concluded. The practical significance of the study is that it is possible to apply the methodology of interviewing experts in practice. The purpose of such surveys will be a regular reassessment and identification of the need for specific consulting methods for certain methods of organizational diagnostics.
ISSN 2618-9984 (Online)