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Strategic decisions and risk management

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Vol 14, No 2 (2023)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian) | PDF
https://doi.org/10.17747/2618-947X-2023-2

Статьи

118-135 562
Abstract

The article substantiates the authors’ position, supported by empirical data, on the sharp increase in the intellectual intensity of managerial activities and on the transformation of the managerial profession into one of the most complex, gaining particular importance in the organisation of the innovation process for technological sovereignty. The increasing role of management science in understanding the ongoing turbulent changes, developing methodologies for proactive management and identifying competencies in demand in the economy is highlighted. The need for the introduction of advanced learning in these conditions is demostrated; the authors’ experience in its development and implementation in terms of specific organisational models, content and teaching methods is presented. Within the framework of the proposed concept of further education, it is necessary to introduce a management specialisation focused on specific industries into the existing system of higher education. It will provide enhanced fundamental and applied training, a significant increase in the volume of practice and will enable students to master the engineering-economic and engineering-managerial knowledge necessary for taking into account interdisciplinary relationships between high technology, economics and finance when making management decisions.

136-149 446
Abstract

The theory of economic resilience is actively developing in Russian and foreign scientific studies. Most of them lack a comprehensive approach to the issue of resilience, the ability to assess the behaviour of economic systems under conditions of uncertainty and to offer optimal solutions to ensure the resilience of economic systems (enterprises, industries) in difficult conditions. It is necessary to develop optimal algorithms for managing economic systems under adverse effects (AE) of a natural, technological, or military nature. The article describes the method of managing economic resilience in three-dimensional spaces: ‘stability – efficiency’, ‘risk – efficiency’, and ‘chance – efficiency’. The results of three approaches to resilience management are compared.

It can be tentatively assumed that the stability of an individual company is ensured if the economic stability index RI exceeds the level of 0.6 and the return on equity is at least 20% per annum. More generally, in the ‘resilience – efficiency’ space, the domain of stable states of the enterprise is described by a fuzzy parabolic R lens. In the ‘risk – efficiency’ and ‘chance – efficiency’ domains, the space of optimal solutions is represented by a set of non-dominated Pareto alternatives, united by a fuzzy parabolic efficient bound of the solution portfolio set. The organisation can control its level of economic resilience within multiple representations and act according to a predetermined plan in the event of a temporary loss of resilience. The research is original, using the methods of fuzzy set theory and soft computing. A technology has been proposed to ensure the economic resilience of systems operating in difficult conditions (e.g. in new regions of the Russian Federation where large-scale military actions are taking place). This makes the study highly relevant and practical.

150-163 437
Abstract

The rapid technological revolution, the shortening of the life cycle of many products, the spread of the principles of ‘universal connectivity’ in industry are forcing manufacturers to develop new business models that reduce the time to market products, increase productivity, and create new principles for delivering value to consumers and interacting with partners. Platform business models are the answer to these challenges. At the same time, industrial companies are increasingly not only platform participants but also platform registrants themselves. Based on the identified strategies for the implementation of different types of business models by industrial companies, the article discusses the potential impact of their implementation. The research presented provides a new perspective on the relationship between the chosen combined models of platform solutions and the performance of industrial companies in the context of sanctioned restrictions on access to financial capital. The empirical analysis allowed us to draw conclusions about the greatest impact on the financial results of the choice of the ‘leader’, ‘diversifier’ and ‘advanced e-commerce’ models when these companies operate on international platforms. To diversify and enter new markets — the ‘leader’ and ‘diversifier’ models and the choice of the ‘extended e-commerce’ model prevent the creation of new markets. The choice of a particular model for implementing platform solutions is influenced (with the highest degree of significance) by the availability and access to the financial capital of industrial companies.

164-179 436
Abstract

Over the past decade, the global energy sector has undergone major fundamental and structural changes as part of the global energy transition. The energy industry of the Russian Federation, as a key player in the global energy market and the world economy as a whole, is undergoing similar changes. In this case, in terms of ensuring high competitiveness and long-term energy security of the state, it is crucial to set priorities and build models of sustainable development for each of the industries related to the energy sector. Indeed, the process of replacing carbon-intensive energy sources with a systematic increase in the share of new, renewable energy sources (RES) should be gradual and consistent to avoid imbalances in energy systems and maintain equity for all stakeholders. In this context, the search for advanced, low-carbon energy sources is a priority for the vast majority of countries around the world. In addition, the development of renewable energy is one of the goals of Russia՚s energy strategy until 2035. At the same time, despite the obvious advantages of the Russian power industry such as the absence of dependence on budget funds, the overwhelming majority of private investment in the industry, the availability of effective mechanisms for attracting investment and the basic principle of balancing the interests of all market participants, there are also negative consequences of this approach. The nationwide task of developing the energy system and increasing the availability of electricity on the territory of the Russian Federation in terms of financing is becoming an exclusive burden on electricity consumers themselves; even insignificant risks in their operation can turn into a threat not only to sustainable development, but also to their very existence. In this context, the analysis of key directions and proposals to minimise the economic impact of the global energy transition on large energy-intensive industrial consumers of electricity and capacity is of particular relevance.

180-187 375
Abstract

There are quite a few phenomena in human civilisation that could be compared to transport in terms of the scale and irreversibility of their impact on the development of society. The domestication of the horse and the invention of the wheel are rightly regarded as some of mankind’s greatest achievements. The current stage of transport development claims to be a Revolution 2.0: the advent of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GPS) has made it possible not only to locate but also to remotely control unmanned vehicles. In the near future, this could radically change both the transportation system and human life as a whole.

The purpose of the article is to consider niche and evolutionary scenarios for the development of unmanned vehicles. It is proved that unmanned transport involves large scale and very similar transportation of homogeneous products in order to cover higher investment costs through economies of scale. In addition, such transport requires extreme predictability in the entire chain: from the receipt of raw materials to the delivery of the finished product to the end user. The accident intolerance of unmanned vehicles can be solved by creating an isolated transportation system along closed circuits in which there is no room for a person.

The article notes that there is a non-zero probability that unmanned vehicles will not be able to outperform traditional transport in terms of their characteristics and will therefore only operate in certain market niches.

188-197 487
Abstract

The article discusses Singapore’s experience in the formation and development of human capital and social-labor relations. Singapore's successful implementation of policies in the areas of education, health care and the development of social and industrial relations was studied. Among the four major ‘economic tigers’ of East Asia, Singapore is the undisputed leader, as evidenced by key economic indices and ratings. Singapore has steadily improved its economic performance thanks to Lee Kuan Yew’s forward-looking policies and rigorous implementation, and anticipating challenges on many fronts. The President of the Republic of Uzbekistan has identified six key areas of cooperation with Singapore in the near future, which are outlined in the article. There are great prospects for cooperation in the field of education, the development of information and telecommunications technologies, the financial and banking sectors, partnership in the areas of ‘smart nation’ and ‘digital government’ in the field of ‘smart cities,’ digital public services, fintech and artificial intelligence. In this way, Singapore has shown that investment in human capital can pay big dividends, and that nothing is impossible when it comes to technological breakthroughs in the Republic of Uzbekistan.

198-212 421
Abstract

The article presents a systematisation of the main factors of cognitive distortions and behavioural heuristics that make the switch to the effective interpreter model irreversible in portfolio investments, especially in high-tech companies. As the heuristic model of the effective interpreter can be perceived as generally increasing the risks in the system for all stakeholders at the current stage of the evolution of the investment system, the author focuses on the most negative manifestations of cognitive and behavioural factors in his description in the publication. However, this does not mean that it is possible or desirable to return to the rational investor model, as narrative and storytelling’s components are too important in the context of ‘new economy’ industry formation and and fast business expansion by disruptive companies. To better interpret the business potential of companies, stakeholders, especially investors, increasingly need to work with narratives, storytelling, aspects of perception and business trust, rather than the numerical values and ratios of financial reporting and analytics. This is partly due to the fact that the intangible assets of companies in the S&P500 index have accounted for up to 90% of the total market capitalisation over the last two decades.

The author identifies the most significant cognitive and behavioral factors: the increase in the narrative component of equity value, the ‘fake it till you make it’ approach, the proliferation of cryptocurrencies as the asset with the largest narrative component of value, the boom in IPOs and SPACs in 2020-2021, buybacks as an unproductive signalling tool, the popularisation of chasing triple digit returns based on the survivor bias, the popularity of momentum strategies, the over-reliance on analyst recommendations and assessments, ‘pump and dump’ schemes, investment gamification and investor extroversion, anchoring and framing, the sunk cost fallacy, the lack of rigorous techniques for invalidating investment theses, and the perception of free money in investing over the past decade and a half. Awareness and tracking of at least the most significant behavioural and cognitive factors in the formation and further development of the heuristic model of the ‘effective interpreter’ will help to reduce risks in the financial and investment system of the ‘new economy’ and increase the sustainability of its long-term development.

213-228 350
Abstract

This article analyses the impact of innovation on the costs of transport companies. In order to carry out the research, the types of innovation in the transport industry and the innovation strategies of transport companies are considered. The case method has been identified as the research method. The analysis concludes that innovation has an impact on both operational performance and shareholder value. Firstly, the value of companies is influenced by innovations related to the purchase of new equipment, the improvement of production indicators and the increase in the quality of services/goods offered.

The main objectives of digital technologies are to improve the control of operational processes, to enhance customer interaction and to reduce costs. Together with the purchase of new equipment, this can be seen as one of the ways of increasing the value of the company.

229-232 349
Abstract

This article highlights current issues related to the problem of variability of wind power generation, which is becoming increasingly important as wind power’s contribution to the overall energy balance of many countries grows. Various aspects of wind flow volatility, including its random and deterministic components, are considered. The random component is associated with unpredictable changes in wind speed and direction, while the deterministic component is due to known patterns, such as daily and seasonal variations. The article proposes different methods for levelling the stochasticity of wind power flows. This is important for the stability and reliability of the power system, as it reduces the likelihood blackouts and ensures a more even distribution of load. The article also gives examples of the economic and environmental impact of using the proposed methods.



ISSN 2618-947X (Print)
ISSN 2618-9984 (Online)