Comparison analysis of passenger traffic by air and rail transport

INTRODUCTION

From 1991 to 2000 air transportation of domestic air lines decreased from 84,6 million passengers to 13,4 million passengers, or more than 6 times. Since 2001 the transportation was increasing annually with the exception of the crisis year 2009. By 2016 the transportation by domestic air lines increased to 56,4 million passengers, which was 66,6% of the 1991 level.

The transportation from major cities to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Sochi, Yekaterinburg, Kaliningrad and Simferopol was restored at high rates. A significant contribution to the growth of air traffic (more than 2 million annually) was made by shift transportation.

The lowest rates of restoration of regional destinations are observed in the Central, North-Western, Ural, Southern and North-Caucasian federal districts.

The growth of traffic in the Volga Federal District was somewhat accelerated after the introduction of targeted subsidies for regional flights.

At the same time, the main potential for the growth of air transportation is concentrated in these densely populated federal districts with more than 80% of the population, the concentration of production, financial, scientific and recreational resources of the country. It should be noted that air transport is not represented in internal tourism, for example, on the routes of the "Golden Ring" and the "Silver Ring".

To develop the concept of development of regional aviation in the Russian Federation, it is important to have data on the general mobility of the population and on the competition of modes of transportation according to destinations. For this purpose the study compares the volumes of passenger traffic by competing modes of transport - by air (domestic air lines) and rail (long­distance traffic) within Russia.

For this study we used the statistics of passenger traffic between city pairs in air transport and between

По данным за 2014 и 2016 годы, pacnpeflendestinations in railway transport for 2014 and 2016 determining the distances between destinations and analyzing the current tariffs. We also conducted the distribution of passenger transportation for the entire array of available information determining the ratios of transportation by competing modes for the routes with different distances as well as the trends of changes in tariffs according to the modes and ranges of transportation.

The aim of the study is to identify the potential for increasing air transport by destinations.

In 2016 56,4 million passengers were transported by air and 102,6 million passengers by railway. Compared to 2014, air transportation increased by 22%, and railway transportation - by 6%. In the total volume of passenger transportation by these two types of transport - aviation and railway, in the long-distance transportation the share of air transport was 35%, that is 3% higher than in 2014.

According to the data for 2014 and 2016, the distribution of passenger traffic by air and railway in terms of distances in Russia in general and individual cities (Moscow, Ekaterinburg, Sochi and Simferopol) is presented in Table. I. Regarding the transportation by air and railway transport, there is a trend towards changing in the share of air transport by the distance of transportation in Russia (figure 1).

The main potential for increasing air transportation is regional transportation for distances up to 1000 km. To determine the specific directions of transportation, the transportation from Moscow, Yekaterinburg and Sochi was analyzed. For this purpose similar groups of traffic directions are identified. The comparison of passenger tariffs of aviation and railway transport for the same destinations was also made. Within a year the ratio between the transportation by two modes of transport varies: air transportation is to a lesser degree subject to seasonal fluctuations, and in the summer months their share of traffic decreases (Figure 2).

RESEARCH RESULTS ВУ LARGE TRANSPORT NODES

Moscow

In 2016 41,1 million passengers were transported by air from Moscow. Compared to 2014, in 2016 air traffic from Moscow increased by 19 %. 46.4 million passengers were transported by rail, or 17% more than in 2014. In the overall transportation of two modes of transport the share of air transportation increased from 46% in 2014 to 47% in 2016.

Air and railway destinations from Moscow were analyzed: 194 in 2016 and 192 in 2014. The transportation by two modes of transport was carried out in 72 directions in 2016 and 69 in 2014.

Air transportation was not carried out in 56 directions in 2016 and 64 in 2014 while one half of them are directions with a length of less than 1000 km from large railway junctions: Ryazan, Ruzaevka, Orel, Bologoye, Vyazma, Murom, Unecha and others. The railway passenger transportation was not carried out to Surgut, Novy Urengoy, Nizhnevartovsk, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Nizhnekamsk, Yakutsk, Norilsk and other remote cities in 66 directions in 2016 and 59 in 2014.

More than 70% of all air traffic by Russian companies is carried out on domestic air routes and 45% of passenger transportation by railway on long-distance routes from Moscow.

In terms of traffic volumes and the share of air transport in transportation from Moscow we have identified the following groups:

• The first, group consists of 28 routes, on which the air transportation of passengers accounted for at least 20% of the total volume of transportation by the two modes of transport in 2014 and 2016. 28 directions of air transportation account for 70% of air traffic from Moscow (about 30 million air passengers). Compared to 2014 the growth of passenger traffic in 2016 was 9% for the railway transport and 34% for the air transport (see Table 2). '
• The second group consists of 10 routes to Siberia and the Far East. In long-distance destinations the air transport carried 4,64 million passengers in 2014 and 4,17 million passengers in 2016. In 10 months of 2017 there was an increase in air transportation on long-distance destinations. The share of air transport in long-distance routes from Moscow is 95% (Table 3).
• The third group consists of 12 routes, on which the main volume of transportation (more than 76% in 2016) is carried out by railway transport (Table 4). Atotal of 15,5 million passengers in 2014 and 18,2 million passengers in 2016 were transported on the routes of the third group. 100% of traffic is carried out at a range of up to 1000 km. The volumes of this transport of passengers can be considered as a significant potential for the development of regional air transport connection from Moscow. According to the calculation, with an increase in the share of air transportation from Moscow (see Table 4) to one third (to Kazan up to 50% and to Samara up to 70%) it will be possible to transport 3,5 million more passengers - an increase of 95% (Table 5).

The comparative data on tariffs of air and railway transport are shown in Fig. 3. For the railway transport tariffs for compartments are considered.

Aviation tariffs are 2 times liigher than the average trend on those routes where there is no railway connection.

Aviation tariffs are also higher on those routes where the range of flight is less than 1000 km, which is caused by high fees of airports and air navigation services needed for non-stop flights. On the remaining routes tariff rates for the air and railway transport are in the same price range.

Ekaterinburg

In 2016 3,062 million passengers were transported from Ekaterinburg (+ 31% compared with 2014) by air transport and 4,603 million (- 9% compared with 2014) by railway long-distance transport. In the general transportation of passengers the share of air transport increased from 32% in 2014 to 35% in 2016.

In terms of traffic volumes and the share of air transport in transportation from Ekaterinburg we have identified the following groups:

• The first, group consists of 20 routes, on which the air transportation of passengers accounted for at least 20% of the total volume of transportation by the two modes of transport in 2014 and 2016. The main routes of air transportation account for more than 90% of air traffic from Ekaterinburg (Table 6). Compared with 2014 the growth of air transportation in 2016 was 35%.
• The second group consists of 36 routes on which only air transportation is carried out, in 2016 there was no railway connection. In 2016 the total volume of transportation on such "hard to reach" destinations was about 200 thousand passengers, or 7% of the total air transportation from Ekaterinburg (Table 7).
• The third group consists of 40 routes, on which the main volume of traffic (more than 76% in 2016) is carried out by railway transport. On these routes 3,5 million passengers in 2014 and 3,2 million passengers in 2016 were transported. 80% of traffic is carried out at a range of up to 1000 km. (Table 8). The volumes of transportation of the third group can be considered as a potential for the development of regional air transport connection with the possibility of implementation depending on the readiness of the airport network to serve regional flights.

The comparative data on tariffs of air and railway transport from Ekaterinburg are shown in Fig. 4 showing the fares of above average level to hard-to-reach airports as well as the closest airports: Chelyabinsk, Magnitogorsk and Ulyanovsk.

Sochi

In 2016 5,082 million passengers were transported to and from Sochi by air (the growth of 1,8 times compared to 2014) and by railway - about 7 million passengers (the growth of 17%).

The share of air transportation in the general passenger traffic increased from 32% in 2014 to 42% in 2016. The transportation of passengers on the route Moscow - Sochi and in the opposite direction makes up 67,5% of the total volume of air transportation. The growth of air transportation to Sochi after 2014 is explained by the closure of charter flights to Egypt and Turkey. In total, air transportation to and from Sochi was carried out in 70 directions.

For 8 directions in 10 months of 2017 the growth of traffic to Sochi was on average 4% compared to the same period in 2016 including the route Moscow - Sochi with an increase in air transportation by 1%.

In 2016 passenger transportation from Moscow to Sochi by railway amounted to 10% of the total sum of transportation to Sochi by railway transport in all directions. Other largest destinations for railway passenger transportation from Sochi are shown in Table. 10. More than 70% of passenger railway transportation to and from Sochi was carried out on the major routes.

The growth of the passenger air transportation to and from Sochi can be ensured by increasing the number of flights on those routes where there is considerable railway transportation and where air transport is in many ways inferior to it or not used. The list of potentially possible routes of air transportation from Sochi is given in Table. 11. The average range of transportation is up to 1000 km.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2016, 159 million passengers were transported by air and railway transport on the territory of the Russian Federation, including 35% by air transport (for comparison: in 2014 - 32%).

The share of air transportation grows with an increase in the range of passenger traffic (Table 13).

At distances of up to 2500 km more than 90% of passenger transportation is carried out by two modes of transport: 97% by railway from the total volume of railway transportation and 83% by air from the total volume of air transportation.

At distances of up to 1000 km 60% of passenger transportation is carried out by two modes of transport: 77% by railway from the total volume of railway transportation and 26% by air transport from the total volume of air transportation.

T

In transportation at a distance of up to 500 km the share of air transport accounts for 4% and in the range of distances up to 1000 km - 16%, in the range of distances up to 2500 km the share is 33%.

At a range of over 2501 km 9,5 million passengers are transported by air transport and about 3 million passengers - by railway. The share of air transportation reaches 80%. For long distances of over 5000 km 99% of passengers are transported by air.

The airports of Moscow function as transfer nodes. Domestic air transportation is concentrated on routes to Moscow and from Moscow (75%). Flights without intermediate landings will become economically viable with increasing traffic volumes and loading capacities of passenger flights on long-distance routes.

It is possible to unburden the airports of Moscow if a network of hub international airports is developed on the country’s territory.

The airline tariffs exceed the railway ones (when traveling in compartment cars) on short distances (up to 1000 km) and on routes to hard-to-reach areas where there is no competition with the modes of land transportation. The high tariff rates of air travel for short distances are related to certain specific features: the main resources are spent on takeoffs and landings, planes have a relatively smaller payload and higher unit costs. These factors are not taken into account in the adopted algorithm for the formation of airport charges.

An increase in air transportation is influenced by:

• the growth of demand for passenger air transportation on the developed routes due to the increase of the population's well-being, business activity and investments in the development of the economy;
• the development of regional transportation, the opening of new routes or restoration of the closed ones, which would be possible with a large-scale reconstruction of aerodromes, including those mentioned in Table. 12.
• according to preliminary estimates, the potential for the growth in air transportation in the range of distances up to 2000 km, with the transition from the railway transport to air transport of a part of passengers is 20 million passengers.

The development of regional traffic is possible on the condition of modernization of regional airfields and changes in airport charges taking into account the specifics of short-distance flights.