EVALUATION OF THE FINANCIAL POSITION OF THE ENTERPRISE AND DETERMINATION OF THE OPTIMAL MODEL OF THE PROBABILITY OF BANKRUPTCY

Abstract

The article deals with the financial analysis of the companies in bankruptcy proceedings. Using the principle of invariance of factors in predicting the functions of financial analysis, it was possible to assess the parameters and structure of the optimal model of the probability of bankruptcy and to establish criteria for the financial situation of the company. All possible models and methods of probability of bankruptcy to anticipate the onset of bankruptcy with a certain degree of probability, but in predicting bankruptcy of domestic producers must be borne in mind that the weights used in the prior art methods require adjustments for regional and sectoral conditions of functioning of economic entities, and the existing trend does not reflect the full information on the dynamics and structure of equity and debt, working capital and liquidity. Thus, it is considered appropriate to use the theory of econometrics, which ensures the independence of the numerical results of the analysis and forecast of the series shift along the time axis. It needs to estimate parameters and structures of the optimal model of the probability of bankruptcy and to establish criteria for the financial position of the company on the principle of invariance in the bankruptcy proceedings. The study serves the basis for a proactive approach to the identification of the optimal model terms of probability of bankruptcy of enterprises and the financial situation of enterprises.