Digital Transformation of Industry: Stable Drivers and Contextual Growth Factors

Digital transformation is recognized as a key driver of industrial development; however, its impact in combination with other factors remains understudied. The objective of the study is to assess the influence of digital transformation, investment, sociodemographic, and structural factors on the development of manufacturing enterprises. This study presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of manufacturing growth in 78 Russian regions from 2013 to 2023. The methodological framework is based on panel regression modeling. The model incorporates an integrated digitalization index, indicators of internet infrastructure (broadband access), as well as variables characterizing fixed capital investment, R&D expenditures, the industry’s share in GRP, urbanization, student population, and employment. Specification tests (Breusch-Pagan and Hausman) confirmed the adequacy of the two-way fixed effects model. The study results identified three groups of determinants. Stable drivers include the digitalization index, internet infrastructure development, and fixed capital investment, all of which have a consistently positive effect. The influence of employment, urbanization, and educational potential is contextual: interregional differences correlate positively with output, whereas intraregional growth over time is associated with lower productivity, indicating structural shifts and time lags. R&D expenditures show a positive effect in interregional comparisons but are insignificant or negative in short-term intraregional dynamics. The findings highlight the priority of government and corporate policies aimed at developing digital infrastructure and stimulating technological investment as the most reliable factors of industrial growth.

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