DEVELOPMENT OF THE MECHANISM OF THE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS IN THE CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY
https://doi.org/10.17747/2078-8886-2012-2-66-73
Abstract
The article runs about the necessity of improvement method of account efficiency of the investment project in condition unstable economic development. In article offered a method of reducing investment risk in the account of the investment project of real option method in condition indeterminacy. For this purpose developed the formula for determining the discount rate of each scenario of events. In addition, authors develop the concept of construction of stages for the purpose of definition of scenarios of the investment project and their probability with a view of overcoming of the basic problems of use of multiscenary model for estimation of cost of real options. For the purpose of decrease in risks of the operating enterprise both classification of real options is developed for a conclusion of the enterprise from crisis, and as a preventive measure, with instructions of sources of financial resources
About the Authors
N. A. Kharitonova
Consulting Audit Company, OOO; Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Doctor of Economics, professor. Director of Consulting Audit Company, OOO since 1992, the company performs audit examinations according to the Russian and international standards, consults in the issues of bookkeeping, tax and management accounting. In charge of projects on creating complex systems of tax accounting, on financial rehabilitation of industrial enterprises submitting results to Arbitration Court. Professor at the Economy and Crisis Management Department of the Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Recipient of Certificate of Honor of the Russian Ministry of Education.
A. A. Bukreeva
JSC “Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Combine”
Russian Federation
In 2006 she graduated from the Magnitogorsk State Technical University by G.I.Nosov, she is an economic department officer of the JSC “Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Combine”, the author of articles on the development of a mechanism for the estimation of efficiency of capital spending projects.
Russian Federation
In 2006 she graduated from the Magnitogorsk State Technical University by G.I.Nosov, she is an economic department officer of the JSC “Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Combine”, the author of articles on the development of a mechanism for the estimation of efficiency of capital spending projects.
References
1. Антикризисное управление: Учебник / Под ред. Р. А. Попова. М.: Высшая школа, 2005. 429 с.
2. Бешелев С. Д., Гурвич Ф. Г. Экспертные оценки. М.: Наука, 1973. 163 с.
3. Букреева А. А. Учет инвестиционного риска при использовании метода реальных опционов для целей антикризисной инвестиционной политики // Вестник Томск. гос. ун-та. Экономика. 2011. № 2 (14). С. 136–141.
4. Букреева А. А., Харитонова Н. А. Особенности антикризисной инвестиционной политики на металлургическом предприятии // Современные исследования социальных проблем: Материалы III Общероссийской научно-практической конференции с международным участием. Вып. 1. Красноярск: Научно-инновационный центр, 2011. С. 274–276.
5. Коротков Э. М. Антикризисное управление: Учебник. 2-е изд., доп. и перераб. М.: Инфра-М, 2005. 620 с.
6. Крюкова О. Г. Предупреждение рисков – условие стабильного развития фирмы // Эффективное антикризисное управление. 2011. № 3. С. 74–78.
7. Кузнецов С. Ю. Современная управленческая концепция устойчивости бизнеса // Эффективное антикризисное управление. 2011. № 6. С. 62–67.
8. Лимитовский М. А. Инвестиционные проекты и реальные опционы на развивающихся рынках: Уч.-практ. пос. М.: Дело, 2004. 528 с.
9. Фишберн П. Теория полезности для принятия решений. М.: Наука, 1978. 352 с.
Review
For citations:
Kharitonova N.A., Bukreeva A.A. DEVELOPMENT OF THE MECHANISM OF THE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS IN THE CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY. Strategic decisions and risk management. 2012;(2):66-73. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17747/2078-8886-2012-2-66-73
Views:
2500
Email this article 