跨越创新“死亡谷”：俄罗斯工业企业的实证研究

本研究旨在识别有助于俄罗斯工业企业成功跨越创新“死亡谷”（VoD）的企业内部组织特征，并考察组织复杂性、产品复杂性和市场不确定性等高技术工业企业特有因素如何影响其跨越VoD的能力，以及这一过程与突破性创新绩效之间的关系。研究以138名直接参与创新活动的俄罗斯工业企业管理者为调查对象。采用问卷调查法，并使用7点李克特量表测量组织复杂性、产品复杂性、市场不确定性和创新实施能力等变量；控制变量包括企业规模、行业类型（B2B/B2C）和行业虚拟变量。采用回归建模和曲线关系分析方法对数据进行分析。研究结果表明，产品复杂性对企业跨越创新“死亡谷”的能力具有显著正向影响。高技术市场所特有的市场不确定性具有调节作用：它减弱组织复杂性对企业跨越VoD能力的负向影响，并增强产品复杂性对该能力的正向影响。此外，企业跨越VoD的能力与突破性创新绩效之间存在倒U形关系。研究表明，当基础研究成果的应用比例为65%–70%，即处于适度而非最高水平时，突破性创新绩效达到峰值。本研究的创新之处在于，将“死亡谷”概念化为企业的一项管理任务，而非仅将其视为科学与商业之间的鸿沟。最重要的实践启示是，“商业化的创意越多越好”这一假设并不成立。研究结果显示，基础研究成果的应用程度存在一个最优水平；超过这一水平会因资源约束而导致绩效下降，从而为管理层精细调整创新流程提供了一种新的管理工具。

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