高科技公司投资过程中 高效解释 启发法模型形成的行为和认知因素

该文章系统阐述了认知扭曲和行为启发式的主要因素。它们在投资组合中，主要是在高科技公司，使转向“高效解释”模型变得不可逆转。由于在投资系统发展的现阶段，“高效解释”启发式模式可能会被认为普遍增加了系统中所有参与者的风险，作者重点阐述了认知和行为因素最消极的表现形式。然而，这并不意味着回归理性投资者模式是可能的或可取的，因为在“新经济”产业的形成和颠覆者公司的业务建设中，叙事和讲故事意义重大。为了更好地解读公司的商业潜力，参与者尤其是投资者，越来越需要使用叙事、讲故事、商业中的接受和信任问题，而不是财务报表和分析的数值和比率来。部分原因是，在过去二十年中，S&P500 指数公司的无形资产占总市值的比例高达 90%。

最重要的认知和行为因素包括：增加股东价值的叙事部分、“fake it till you make it” 方法、密码货币发展（这种资产的价值具有最大的叙事成分）、2020-2021 年的 IPO 和 SPAC 热潮、无益的信号工具 — 回购、普及基于倖存者偏差的即时增益法、战略动力流行、过度依赖分析师的建议和估计、“pump and dump”方法、投资游戏化、投资者外向性、沉锚效应和框架效应、沉没成本误区、取消投资论文的严格方法缺乏，以及对过去十五年投资中资金自由使用的看法。认识和跟踪至少是形成和进一步发展“高效解释”启发法模型的最重要的行为和认知因素，将有助于降低“新经济”金融和投资体系的风险，提高其长期发展的可持续性。

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