Кандидат экономических наук, начальник управления АО «АтомСтройЭкспорт».
Область научных интересов: инвестиции, риск-менеджмент.
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Head of the Department of “AtomStroyExport” JSC.
Research interests: investments, risk management.
The article is devoted to the optimization of the processes of organization and management of international megaprojects based on the formation of a risk management system.
Currently, the implementation efficiency of megaprojects remains low due to the emergence of many risks at various stages of project implementation.
In this connection, it is proposed to form an integrated risk management system, which implies a three-stage structure for introducing the 6 element risk management system into the project life cycle, into the main project management processes.
This article substantiates the need to form a risk management system in three stages in accordance with the key elements of a risk management system: (1) Planning – the block «Objectives and environment of the project»; (2) Approval of the project – the blocks «Identification», «Classification», «Assessment of risks and risk tolerance», «Risk management plan»; (3) Monitoring and control – the block «Control and monitoring of risks».
Thus, the proposed integrated risk management system provides: continuity of the risk management process based on the audit of the RMS; the ability to adjust RMS at the stage of forecasting a risk event; possibility of scenario modeling for forecasting risk reduction potential; risk management program, formed by current risks in order to increase the attractiveness of the mega-project for the investor.
It is also proposed to introduce an audit of risk management processes and procedures based on an adapted methodology for the following components of the risk management system: defining events and setting goals; the internal environment of the organization; organization risk assessment; risk control tools; responding to risks; communications and information; risk monitoring.
This technique allows you to take into account risks not only at the stage of project development, but also during its implementation, which ensures its feasibility, as well as an audit algorithm for risk management systems of a megaproject is developed and recommendations for improving the RMS through this tool are proposed.
Cтатья посвящена оптимизации процессов организации и управления международных мегапроектов путем формирования системы управления рисками.
В настоящий момент эффективность реализации мегапроектов остается на низком уровне из‑за множества рисков на различных этапах выполнения проектов. В связи с этим предлагается сформировать комплексную шестиэлементную систему управления рисками, которая подразумевает внедрение в основные процессы управления проектом.
В настоящей статье обоснована необходимость трехэтапной структуры внедрения в соответствии с ключевыми элементами системы управления рисками: (1) планирование (блок «Цели и среда реализации проекта»); (2) утверждение проекта (блоки «Идентификация», «Классификация», «Оценка рисков и толерантности к рискам», «План управления рисками»); (3) мониторинг и контроль (блок «Контроль и мониторинг рисков»).
Таким образом, предложенная комплексная система управления рисками обеспечивает: непрерывность процесса управления рисками на базе аудита СУР, возможность корректировки СУР на этапе прогнозирования рискового события; возможность сценарного моделирования для прогноза потенциала снижения риска; программу управления рисками, формируемую по актуальным рискам с целью повышения привлекательности мегапроекта для инвестора.
Также предложено ввести аудит процедур управления рисками, который будет проводиться на основании адаптированной методики по следующим компонентам системы управления рисками: определение событий и выработка целей, внутренняя среда организации, оценка рисков организации, средства контроля рисков, реагирование на риски, коммуникации и информация, мониторинг рисков. Данная методика позволяет учитывать риски не только на стадии разработки проекта, но и в ходе его реализации. Кроме того, разработан алгоритм аудита систем управления рисками мегапроекта и предложены рекомендации по их совершенствованию.
The re-industrialization of the world industry in its postindustrial stage of development requires the implementation of megaprojects aimed at a qualitative update of the world economy. Besides, the general condition of national economy, which has developed as a result of sanctions and global crisis, presents the strategies of integrated approach, which combines the resources of different countries.
The megaproject is understood as an aggregation of investment projects, grouped by country, industry, region and other parameters, where it is expected that leading countries would play the active role in its implementation [Shamin, 2016].
At the present time this type of projects is included in the list of national projects under twelve directions for strategic development, determined by the Decree of the President of Russia dd. 07.05.2018 No.204 “On the National Goals and Strategic Objectives of the Development of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2024”, and all business processes and risks inherent with them will be characterized to certain extent in this article.
The base of a megaproject is a synergetic effect ensured by mutually beneficial cooperation between investors (government-controlled and private) and contractors. Based on modern global statistics we can conclude that the efficiency level of megaprojects implemented at the present time is insignificant, what is manifested in violation of the planned terms in 85% cases and in departure of their costs not
less than by 20% from its historical cost [Flyvbjerg, 2014].
However, the fact of increase of the risk level due to underdevelopment of a new cooperation form for a significant number of investors and contractors being on conditions of equal partnership is not taken into account in the process of development and implementation of international megaprojects.
The implementation of international megaprojects is connected with many risks emerging at the phase of projecting and building, as well as in the period of running the objects1.
The structure of the megaproject risk field includes the following risk categories:
Calculations of the potential for decrease of direct losses in the process of project implementation were conducted for assessment of the management system efficiency; the effect from the implementation of the proposed methodology reaches the key value of 90% in the process of implementing the corrected scenario of the megaproject [Flyvbjerg, 2014].
Therefore it is necessary to develop an optimal methodology for the formation of the risk management system, which would be adjusted to the phases and decisionmaking points in the life cycle of a megaproject.
The megaproject risk management is carried out on practice pursuant to the following documents:
However, the analysis of these documents and of practice in using the fragmented risk management system (RMS) made it possible to reveal a range of serious disadvantages:
The reason is that the fragmented risk management system does not allow taking into account the principal feature of contemporary megaprojects - the multiplicity of managed entities interacting on principles of partnership. Based on it, the following algorithm for the formation of an integrated risk management system for an international megaproject seems appropriate.
It is offered that the formation process of the management system is to be built in three steps.
At the phase of Planning the following tasks are solved:
At the phase of the project Approval the following takes place:
The primary objective of the second phase is the formation of a dynamic risk model for the megaproject, based on which a decision about the further organization strategy is made in compliance with the organization risk tolerance level for the whole project portfolio, also the insurance and non-insurance protection is formed.
The third phase - Monitoring and Control - includes:
The described algorithm makes it possible to form unified approaches to adjust the processes of the process management of the megaproject, including:
As a part of fulfillment of this algorithm the decisionmaking scenarios for effective implementation of a megaproject is formed, which requires the megaproject risk management system to focus on maximization of effectiveness in fulfilling its phases and the most important - to ensure the benefits of the project taking into account the interconnection of the system constituent elements as an important factor in return of investments8.
The main factor in the formation of the integrated risk management system is its full integration into the general system of organization and management of a megaproject, also a preventive possibility of risk response including the newly detected and emerging risk factors.
Proceeding from the proposed requirements to the risk management system (Pic. 1) and based on methodological processes of organization and management of megaprojects in international practice, the proposed three-stage algorithm is compiled into the general matrix of the project management (Pic. 2), what allows structural decision-making regarding the fulfillment of highlighted phases and project risk management to effectively achieve the results at strategic level [Kuznetsov et al., 2017].
The formed integrated risk management system includes the following elements:
Content of the methodological and information support for the risk assessment is presented in Pic. 3.
This organization mechanism for risk assessment ensures the development of recommendations for building of business-models and processes of project management, distributed according to hierarchical levels of project management;
The content of the methodological and information support for the risk response is described in Pic. 4.
As a part of this element, conceptual recommendations for hedging the insured risks and administrative activities in management and minimization of uninsured risks of all the stages of the project are elaborated.
The content of methodological and information support for the means of control is described in Pic. 5.
This element makes it possible to adjust the risk management system in order to detect the factors and reasons, which slow down the effective implementation of a megaproject, also to re-record the risks and to form the adjusted risk register taking into account the real situation.
For the purposes to ensure the effective implementation of an international megaproject it is necessary to form an integrated risk management system, which should be oriented to the implementation of a megaproject and ensuring the advantages of the interconnection of the system constituent elements as an important factor of the return of investments in the shortest period.
Table 1Assessment of the RMS effectiveness
Source: composed by the author.
Advantages of the proposed mechanism for risk management involve:
Thus, the proposed integrated risk management system allows taking into account the risks not only at the phase of development of a megaproject, but also in the process of its implementation, what ensures its implementability.
As a part of assessing the effectiveness of the risk management system, the potential for reduction of direct losses in the process of the project implementation reaches the key value of 90%, however the probability of alteration of confidence intervals for reduction potential is very high.
It is necessary to audit the management system itself in order to timely adjust and correct the RMS.
The proposed methodology for the formation of the risk management system takes into account the correlation effect, which implies the distinction of phases and points for making decisions concerning further implementation throughout the life cycle of a megaproject. At the same time, special attention should be paid to the process and methodology of auditing the risk management system itself, also the formation of confidence levels for possible values of risk tolerance of the organization itself in the process of managing the portfolio of megaprojects.
1. Riakhovska А.N., Arsenova Ye. V., Kriukova О.H. Foreign practice of anti-crisis management: a tutorial / ed. by А.N. Riakhovska. Мoscow: Magister; INFRA-М, 2020. 2. URL: https://www.ferma.eu/app/uploads/2011/11/a-risk-management-standard-russian-version.pdf. 3. URL: https://www.coso.org/Pages/erm-integratedframework.aspx. 4. URL: https://www.pmi.org/pmbok-guide-standards/foundational/pmbok. 5. URL: http://oac.rgotups.ru/misc/files/prof_risk/gost_R_51897-2011.pdf. 6. URL: https://www.iso.org/standard/43170.html. 7. URL: http://www.pmhut.com/is-it-time-to-rethink-project-management-theory 8. RMS-FERMA Risk Management Standard - Federation of European Risk Management Association.: http://www.ferma.eu/risk-management/standards/risk-management-standard/.
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.